Прогнозирование продолжительности жизни в муниципальных образованиях

Прогнозирование продолжительность жизни в муниципальных образованиях.

Автор: Набиева Ирина Шамилевна ГМУ-303, БГАУ г. Уфа

Прогноз численности населения является важнейшей характеристикой социально-экономического развития государства.[10] Основной целью статистики является получение достоверной информации о происходящих демографических процессах. Статистическое наблюдение в расчетах дает неоднозначную оценку. Статистика, как предмет науки изучает истину и находится в постоянном развитии.[5]

В последние годы в г.Уфа, как и по республике в целом, складывается благоприятная демографическая ситуация: определяются рост ожидаемой продолжительности жизни при рождении, снижение младенческой смертности.

В столице Башкортостана, по данным на 1 января 2015 года, проживает 1 миллион 116 тысяч человек - это 27,2 процента всех жителей республики и 44 процента городского населения региона. По численности населения Уфа занимает 11 место среди крупных городов страны, не считая Москвы и Санкт-Петербурга. Вместе с тем, за счет миграционных потоков молодежи с целью обучения и трудоустройства столица республики имеет более молодое население.[6]

В течение семи последних лет в Уфе наблюдается естественный прирост населения. В 2014 году он составил 5258 человек. В минувшем году в Уфе родилось 17972 ребенка. Это на 784 человека, или на 4,6% больше, чем в 2013 году. По данному показателю 2014 год оказался самым благополучным за последние 27 лет. Для сравнения - в 1987 году родилось 18 767 детей.

Несмотря на естественный прирост населения, рождаемость остается одной из центральных демографических проблем. Одним из существенных факторов влияния на повышение рождаемости является состояние семейной сферы, изменение брачного поведения. К современным тенденциям относится откладывание момента создания семьи на старший возраст. Средний возраст для вступления в первый зарегистрированный брак составляет сегодня у мужчин - 27 лет, у женщин - 25 лет. Соответственно, откладывается и время рождения детей.[9]

Госкомстат России составил демографические расчеты по регионам страны на ближайшие годы. В соответствии с этим прогнозом, ожидаемая продолжительность жизни в 2015 году прогнозируется для Уфимцев на уровне 71,8 лет. Для женщин прогноз средней продолжительности жизни 77,3 лет, а для мужчин - 66 лет. К 2020 году средняя продолжительность жизни в Уфе должна подрасти - до 72,7 лет (67,1 для мужчин и 78 для женщин).[8]

Основной целью муниципальной демографической политики является рост демографического потенциала города.[4]

Осуществление данной цели может быть обеспечено в рамках направлений и мероприятий по совместному укреплению здоровья и увеличению ожидаемой продолжительности жизни населения за счет внедрения современных технологий, направленных на снижение перинатальной, младенческой и материнской смертности, на разработки инновационных медицинских технологий которые, сберегут здоровье окружающего населения.[3]

Библиографический список

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Ханнанова, Т.Р. Становление и развитие государственной аграрной политики: сравнительный индикативный анализ /Т.Р. Ханнанова//Политика и общество. 2013. -№ 3. -С. 282-293. 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

Иксанов, Р.А. Правовая защита сельскохозяйственных товаропроизводителей России в условиях участия в ВТО/Р.А. Иксанов. -Уфа: ФГБОУ ВПО РИО Башкирский ГАУ, 2014.-150 с. 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

Иксанов, Р.А. Вопрос подготовки специалистов по правовой защите товаропроизводителей РФ в ВТО/Р.А. Иксанов//Юрист ВУЗа.-2014.-№3.-С. 54-56. 0100090000030b03000000005802000000005802000026060f00a604574d46430100000000000100870b0000000001000000840400000000000084040000010000006c000000000000000000000009000000080000000000000000000000600100003d01000020454d4600000100840400000f000000010000000000000000000000000000005605000000030000e20100000f010000000000000000000000000000665a070055220400460000002c00000020000000454d462b014001001c000000100000000210c0db01000000600000006000000046000000880100007c010000454d462b224004000c000000000000001e4009000c00000000000000244001000c000000000000003040020010000000040000000000803f214007000c0000000000000008400005d4000000c80000000210c0db01000000000000000000000000000000000000000100000089504e470d0a1a0a0000000d494844520000000a00000009020300000076c855800000000c504c5445000000fffffff26c4fffffff0f8a3b2c0000000474524e53ffffff00402aa9f400000001624b47440088051d480000000c636d50504a436d7030373132000000074f6db7a5000000254944415418d363d8fffe03c3fad71f1856bffac0b0ead5068655ab168069101f240e94070087cf15d7fa35be500000000049454e44ae426082000840010824000000180000000210c0db01000000030000000000000000000000000000001b40000040000000340000000100000002000000000000bf000000bf000020410000104103000000000000b3000000b3ffff1f41000000b3000000b3ffff0f412100000008000000620000000c00000001000000150000000c00000004000000150000000c00000004000000460000001400000008000000544e50500601000051000000a400000000000000000000000900000008000000000000000000000000000000000000000a0000000900000050000000300000008000000024000000000000008600ee000a00000009000000280000000a000000090000000100010000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000ffffff0084009001c6000000e700ff00f7800000ffc00000f7800000e700494cc60090018400000051000000cc00000000000000000000000900000008000000000000000000000000000000000000000a000000090000005000000034000000840000004800000000000000c60088000a00000009000000280000000a000000090000000100040000000000000000000000000000000000030000000000000000000000ffffff004f6cf200211112111102010122111221110201012221122211010000222212222102020222222222220202022222122221010000222112221102020222111221110202022111121111018a04460000001400000008000000544e5050070100004c000000640000000000000000000000090000000800000000000000000000000a000000090000002900aa0000000000000000000000803f00000000000000000000803f0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000220000000c000000ffffffff460000001c00000010000000454d462b024000000c000000000000000e000000140000000000000010000000140000000400000003010800050000000b0200000000050000000c0209000a00030000001e000400000007010400040000000701040033000000410b8600ee0009000a000000000009000a0000000000280000000a000000090000000100010000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000084009001c6000000e700ff00f7800000ffc00000f7800000e700494cc6009001840000004b000000410bc600880009000a000000000009000a0000000000280000000a000000090000000100040000000000000000000000000000000000030000000000000000000000ffffff004f6cf200211112111102010122111221110201012221122211010000222212222102020222222222220202022222122221010000222112221102020222111221110202022111121111018a040c00000040092900aa0000000000000009000a0000000000040000002701ffff030000000000

Карачурина Р.Ф.Страхование в системе финансовых институтов страны на примере республики Башкортостан/Международный технико -экономический журнал. 2012. № 4. С. 58 -63. 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

Карачурина Р.Ф. Стратегические приоритеты развития страхования в рамках ШОС/Р.Ф. Карачурина//Дискуссия. 2013. № 10 (40). С. 77-82. 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</</p>